Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 90%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

87.30Ᵽ best bid · 91.30Ᵽ best ask

Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Order book

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Oct. 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".