Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

0.75Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

1.00Ᵽ – 2.65Ᵽ

Call No

97.35Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 0%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 2.65Ᵽ best ask

🌐 On Polymarket right now: $2,118,838 volume · $77,376 liquidity

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Text-matched by question similarity, not confirmed — check before treating this as a real discrepancy.

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026? Kalshi: 1% · 0.55Ᵽ apart

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

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Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Bids

10.00 1.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 99.00Ᵽ · if correct: +10.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −990.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 2.65Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 2.65Ᵽ · if correct: +973.50Ᵽ · if wrong: −26.50Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Oct. 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m.
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.