Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator trigger in 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 9%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 8, 2027, 1:29 p.m.

Rules

If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.