Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027?

📡 Kalshi: 3%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.30Ᵽ best bid · 5.30Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m.

Rules

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.