Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

📡 Polymarket: 1%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

🔍 Possibly the same event elsewhere

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 3, 2026, midnight

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.