Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 2%
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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 31, 2026, midnight UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.