Will the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025?

Call Yes 3Ᵽ Call No 97Ᵽ

2.90Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

1.00Ᵽ – 4.90Ᵽ

Call No

95.10Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ

📡 Kalshi: 3%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.90Ᵽ best ask

🌐 On Kalshi right now: $82,667 volume · $0 liquidity · 25,908 open interest

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

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Bids

10.00 1.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 99.00Ᵽ · if correct: +10.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −990.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 4.90Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 4.90Ᵽ · if correct: +951.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −49.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Kalshi ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Dec. 31, 2026, 3 p.m.
Rules: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

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