Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

2.25Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

1.00Ᵽ – 4.30Ᵽ

Call No

95.70Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 14%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.30Ᵽ best ask

🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $19,308 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 3 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

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Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Bids

10.00 1.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 99.00Ᵽ · if correct: +10.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −990.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 4.30Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 4.30Ᵽ · if correct: +957.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −43.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.