Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Call Yes 4Ᵽ Call No 96Ᵽ

3.85Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

2.00Ᵽ – 6.00Ᵽ

Call No

94.00Ᵽ – 98.00Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 4%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

2.00Ᵽ best bid · 6.00Ᵽ best ask

🌐 On Polymarket right now: $134,749 volume · $18,915 liquidity

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

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Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Bids

10.00 2.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 98.00Ᵽ · if correct: +20.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −980.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 6.00Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 6.00Ᵽ · if correct: +940.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −60.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2027, 5 a.m.
Rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

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