Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or saving

📡 Kalshi: 8%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

5.90Ᵽ best bid · 9.90Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Qualifying payments require:
At least $100 issued to each of at least 1,000,000 actual recipients under the same program. Payments to the same person may be combined.
Checks dispatched, electronic transfers released, or equivalent spendable monetary payments issued. Recipients need not cash their checks.

The following do NOT qualify:
Announcements, authorizations, planned payments, or counts of eligible people without actual issuance.
Routine federal benefits or ordinary tax refunds; ACA or other healthcare reimbursement rebates; importer tariff refunds; child Trump Account deposits; private gifts; stock dividends; or non-monetary distributions.

Changes to the program name, payment amount, eligibility, funding source, spending restrictions, or political conditions do not disqualify a program that meets these requirements.