Will the European Union have formally adopted a binding EU-wide prohibition on imports of goods originating in Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, covering those goods generally as a class rather than only a narrow product category, after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027?

📡 Kalshi: 14%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

12.00Ᵽ best bid · 16.00Ᵽ best ask

Log in to trade this market.

Order book

How much do you disagree with this price?

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

Log in to add your own rating.

No one's rated this yet -- be the first.

Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the European Union has formally adopted a binding EU-wide prohibition on imports of goods originating in Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, covering those goods generally as a class rather than only a narrow product category, after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from the Council of the European Union qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Reports that merely reference prior publications from before issuance do NOT qualify unless the new report explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of publication.

Final adoption of the EU legal act qualifies even if entry into force or application begins later. A proposal, provisional political agreement, national measure, labelling rule, loss of tariff preferences, higher tariff, licensing requirement, or sanctions against named persons or entities does NOT constitute this EU-wide goods ban. The report must affirm adoption as fact, rather than quote a claim that adoption occurred.