Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional statu

61.00Ᵽ

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Call Yes

59.00Ᵽ – 63.00Ᵽ

Call No

37.00Ᵽ – 41.00Ᵽ

📡 Kalshi: 61%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

59.00Ᵽ best bid · 63.00Ᵽ best ask

🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $2,392 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 4 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

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Bids

10.00 59.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 41.00Ᵽ · if correct: +590.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −410.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 63.00Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 63.00Ᵽ · if correct: +370.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −630.00Ᵽ

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Source: Kalshi ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC
Rules: If Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have begun, or agreed to begin, formal negotiations toward a new formal association status, including associate membership, a unique alliance, or another equivalent new institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

A joint announcement includes contemporaneous official statements from both sides confirming the same agreement to begin formal negotiations. An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal. Proposals, invitations, exploratory discussions, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify.