Open
🏛️ Politics
General
#3490
🎯 One of 2 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 2 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 2 candidates »
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?
1.85Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
1.00Ᵽ – 4.70Ᵽ
Call No
95.30Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 3%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.70Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $14,441 volume
Price history
This platform
Polymarket (indicative)
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Order book
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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