Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 4.0%?

📡 Kalshi: 17%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Oct. 13, 2027, 12:29 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above

4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028.

The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced by the Social Security Administration. Subsequent revisions, corrections, or legislative changes will not be considered.

This market concerns the gross Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and does not concern changes in Medicare premiums or the resulting net amount received by any beneficiary.