Will the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for China, Mainland for December 2026 be above the holdings reported for China, Mainland for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data?

📡 Kalshi: 16%
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Event cutoff

Feb. 18, 2027, 8:55 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for China, Mainland for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for China, Mainland for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes.

For this market, an increase means that the December 2026 figure for the named holder is strictly greater than its prior-year figure in the first non-preliminary edition of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities containing December 2026 data. Both figures will be taken from that same edition, including any revisions to the prior-year figure reflected there. “December 2026” refers to the table’s reporting period, not its publication date.

Values will be compared as published, in billions of U.S. dollars, without rounding. Holdings will be attributed exactly as Treasury reports them, without adjustment for custodial arrangements or beneficial ownership. For row matching, “Mainland China” corresponds to “China, Mainland,” “South Korea” corresponds to “Korea, South,” and “UAE” corresponds to “United Arab Emirates.”