Will the U.S. and Iran hold a senior-level meeting before Oct 1, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 5%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Oct. 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the United States and Iran hold a senior-level diplomatic meeting after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity. It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks. Only the part of a meeting held after Issuance counts; a meeting held entirely before Issuance does not qualify, even if reported afterward.

A senior official is a head of state or government, vice president, foreign minister or other cabinet-rank minister, head of a national security council, presiding officer of a national legislature, special envoy, or anyone the head of state or government designates to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Officials whose mandate is limited to technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, or preparatory discussions do not qualify. Qualifying officials include, without limitation, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner for the United States, and Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for Iran.

The meeting may be direct, with the officials meeting face to face in person (interpreters permitted), or indirect, with both delegations physically present in the same facility, venue, or city for a single organized round of talks a