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🏛️ Politics
General
#3651
🎯 One of 8 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 8 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 8 candidates »
Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?
24.50Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
23.50Ᵽ – 27.50Ᵽ
Call No
72.50Ᵽ – 76.50Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 16%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
23.50Ᵽ best bid · 27.50Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $58,662 volume
Price history
This platform
Polymarket (indicative)
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Order book
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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