SBF released from custody in 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.35Ᵽ best ask

Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.