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🏛️ Politics
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#37287
🎯 One of 3 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 3 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 3 candidates »
Will the UK agree to or announce a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Aug 1, 2027?
48.00Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
46.00Ᵽ – 50.00Ᵽ
Call No
50.00Ᵽ – 54.00Ᵽ
📡 Kalshi: 48%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
46.00Ᵽ best bid · 50.00Ᵽ best ask
🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $1,078 volume
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Resolution
- Source
- Kalshi ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Abandoning, withdrawing from, or superseding that treaty qualifies only if the UK does not, at the same time, agree to, announce, or state its intention to pursue another arrangement under which Mauritius would become sovereign over Diego Garcia. Changes to payments, the duration or terms of the UK's use of Diego Garcia, security provisions, implementation dates, or other treaty provisions do not qualify if Mauritius would still become sovereign over Diego Garcia.
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
Formal signing of treaties
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies
Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
The following do NOT qualify:
Preliminary discussions
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions (unless specified)
Retraction of previously announced commitments
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