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#37919
🎯 One of 18 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
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Will Waymo be operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Tokyo, Japan before Jan 1, 2027?
6.00Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
4.00Ᵽ – 8.00Ᵽ
Call No
92.00Ᵽ – 96.00Ᵽ
📡 Kalshi: 6%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
4.00Ᵽ best bid · 8.00Ᵽ best ask
🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $1,050 volume
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Resolution
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- Kalshi ✓ Verified source
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- If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Tokyo, Japan before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Tokyo, Japan, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Tokyo, Japan may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Tokyo, Japan
Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Tokyo, Japan limits
Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Tokyo, Japan
Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Tokyo, Japan
Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Examples that would resolve to No:
Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Tokyo, Japan
Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Tokyo, Japan
All Waymo vehicles in Tokyo, Japan have safety drivers
Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides
Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code
Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
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