Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Event cutoff

Dec. 15, 2026, 2:59 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The qualifying jurisdictions are the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. The District of Columbia, which Harris also carried, is excluded from this list because it is not a state and holds no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial election, so its inclusion or exclusion cannot change the count.

The count is the number of the 27 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) and 2026 gubernatorial general elections held in those 19 states, as fixed at Issuance, that are won by a nominee of the Republican Party. A candidate who wins as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count, even if no Republican nominee appeared on the ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs.