Open
🏛️ Politics
General
#3832
🎯 One of 13 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 13 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 13 candidates »
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
15.50Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
15.50Ᵽ – 19.50Ᵽ
Call No
80.50Ᵽ – 84.50Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 14%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
15.50Ᵽ best bid · 19.50Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $676,626 volume
Price history
This platform
Polymarket (indicative)
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Order book
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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