Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?

📡 Polymarket: 1%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 3.20Ᵽ best ask

Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Sept. 16, 2026, 3:59 a.m.

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.