Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11.50Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

8.50Ᵽ – 12.50Ᵽ

Call No

87.50Ᵽ – 91.50Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 12%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

8.50Ᵽ best bid · 12.50Ᵽ best ask

🌐 On Polymarket right now: $3,209,653 volume · $207,252 liquidity

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Text-matched by question similarity, not confirmed — check before treating this as a real discrepancy.

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027? Kalshi: 57% · 45.50Ᵽ apart

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

Loading…

Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

Log in to trade this market.

Loading…

Bids

10.00 8.50Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 91.50Ᵽ · if correct: +85.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −915.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 12.50Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 12.50Ᵽ · if correct: +875.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −125.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

Log in to add your own rating.

No one's rated this yet -- be the first.

Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2028, 4:59 a.m.
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.