Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 30%?

📡 Kalshi: 20%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above

30%, then the market resolves to Yes.

"Electric trucks" means vehicles classified under Canadian tariff item 8704.60.00. The measured value is the standard counter-tariff percentage applicable to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, excluding ordinary customs duties, sales taxes and importer-specific exemptions, remissions or rebates.

Settlement uses the rate actually in effect at the observation time, including amendments, suspensions and repeals effective by then, rather than the first published rate. A rate published before issuance remains eligible if still in effect. Announced changes effective afterward do not count. If no counter-tariff applies to the defined vehicles, the value is 0%; unavailable data alone does not establish a 0% rate.