Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

📡 Polymarket: 12%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

17.00Ᵽ best bid · 21.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 31, 2026, midnight UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.