Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

📡 Polymarket: 6%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

4.50Ᵽ best bid · 8.50Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

July 1, 2027, 3:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.