Will the U.S. goods trade deficit with China before January 1, 2027 be below $150B?

📡 Kalshi: 54%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Feb. 4, 2027, 1:29 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.

For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China

The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.