Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?

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Event cutoff

Jan. 3, 2027, 1:59 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted.

All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice.

Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called.

Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this cla