Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 1%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

Log in to trade this market.

Order book

How much do you disagree with this price?

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

Log in to add your own rating.

No one's rated this yet -- be the first.

Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Oct. 10, 2026, 3:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.