Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Sept. 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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Think “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?” resolved No incorrectly? 0 appeals filed so far — window closes Sept. 13, 2026, 7:53 p.m.. This doesn't decide anything by itself; staff review every appeal.

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