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🏛️ Politics
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#4075
🎯 One of 10 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 10 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 10 candidates »
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
5.50Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
2.50Ᵽ – 6.50Ᵽ
Call No
93.50Ᵽ – 97.50Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
2.50Ᵽ best bid · 6.50Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $225,628 volume
Price history
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Polymarket (indicative)
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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