Will Shawn Fain announce their departure as President of the United Auto Workers before Jan 1, 2027?

📡 Kalshi: 13%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If Shawn Fain leaves as President of the United Auto Workers before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.