Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 12%
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7.50Ᵽ best bid · 11.50Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

The moratorium must be for a period of at least one year. A commitment to end enrichment permanently will qualify. A moratorium with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact implementation details of the instrument are being finalized would not qualify). A moratorium committed to for less than one year will not qualify, even if framed as permitting extension.

The commitment must specifically communicate the suspension or end of all Iranian enrichment of uranium for any purpose. Commitments which do not explicitly reference such a moratorium (e.g., a commitment to “maintain the status quo”), will not qualify. Restrictions on the purity or level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or commitments only to dilute, down-blend, surrender, or eliminate Iran’s uranium stockpile, will not qualify.

The commitment must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to implement such a moratorium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation schedule, remain subject to future arrangements (e.g., an unconditional commitment to a qualifying moratorium to be implemented in sequence with already-agreed-upon reciprocal commitments from the United States would qualify). A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to agree upon a moratorium in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed