Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?

📡 Polymarket: 8%
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Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stockpile outside of Iranian territory and into the custody of an entity other than Iran. Sales, or other arrangements in which Iran is compensated for such a transfer, will qualify.

The commitment must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A present and definite commitment to a qualifying transfer of enriched uranium will qualify even if the related technical or procedural details (e.g., the recipient or custodian, the transportation arrangements, or the implementation schedule) have not been finalized. A conditional commitment, the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a transfer in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify.

Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.

If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instr