Will Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027?

📡 Kalshi: 68%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

March 1, 2027, 5 a.m. UTC

Rules

If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it. A court ruling that overturns or reduces his conviction or sentence, a law that only reduces penalties or changes sentence-progression rules for a class of convicts, and a change of custody such as house arrest do not count.