Will Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for or endorsing a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before Jan 1, 2027?

📡 Kalshi: 5%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

3.00Ᵽ best bid · 7.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for or endorsing a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Pause, pacing, and slowdown include a temporary halt or a deliberate reduction in the rate of frontier AI research, training, or capability development; a complete halt is not required. Frontier AI means leading general-purpose AI systems and development of their successors. The call must concern development generally on a worldwide basis or through coordinated action across countries. Calls restricted to one sector or application, such as biology, or to one country do NOT qualify.

An explicit endorsement of a qualifying proposal counts, including a proposal conditional on reciprocal participation or safeguards. Merely describing, considering, or quoting a proposal without endorsing its slowdown component does NOT count. Deployment restrictions, safety measures, or regulation alone do NOT count without an explicit development slowdown call. Implementation is not required.

Statements must be affirmatively issued or signed; being quoted in another’s statement does not count. Retweets, reposts, or shares without additional commentary do not count as statements.