Will a Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 8, 2026 at 8:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center?

📡 Kalshi: 3%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 5.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If a Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 8, 2026 at 8:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 3 at landfall; a higher category does not satisfy this market. The center must cross this coastline from water to land. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules. The coverage period starts at listing and ends immediately before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET.