Will a Category 3 or higher hurricane makes landfall in the Northeast United States between October 6, 2026 at 11:30:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center?

📡 Kalshi: 1%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 3.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:58 a.m. UTC

Rules

If a Category 3 or higher hurricane makes landfall in the Northeast United States between October 6, 2026 at 11:30:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

Covered states, including their islands: Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.