Will a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center?

Call Yes 2Ᵽ Call No 98Ᵽ

2.00Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

1.00Ᵽ – 4.00Ᵽ

Call No

96.00Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ

📡 Kalshi: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.00Ᵽ best ask

🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $49,585 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 2 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

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Bids

10.00 1.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 99.00Ᵽ · if correct: +10.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −990.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 4.00Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 4.00Ᵽ · if correct: +960.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −40.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Kalshi ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2027, 4:58 a.m. UTC
Rules: If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.

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