Will the United States federal government be at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 34%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 12, 2026, 3 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.

Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:

OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026
OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"

Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:

A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations
Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations