Will at least 27,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election?

📡 Kalshi: 6%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 29, 2026, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If at least 27,500,000 valid and null ballots are cast in the November 29, 2026 Spanish general election for the Congress of Deputies, then the market resolves to Yes.

The count is the number of voters (votantes) for the Congress of Deputies: valid votes, including blank votes, plus null votes; registered voters, abstentions and Senate ballots do not count. If the Junta Electoral Central has not published national results by the Expiration Date, the count is the provincial electoral boards' general-scrutiny total, which includes votes from Spaniards resident abroad (CERA). The Ministry of the Interior's provisional count, which excludes CERA votes, is used only if the general scrutiny has not been completed in every province by the Expiration Date.

Subject to the contract’s Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations provisions, the vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification.

The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Outside those two contract provisions, preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled before voting is fully conducted, all contracts resolve to No.