Will the Nationals hold the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election?

📡 Kalshi: 17%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 28, 2026, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by the Nationals following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. In case of ties for a rank, all tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for #1, next is #3), markets for the skipped rank (#2) resolve to No. Unlisted parties or groupings count toward rankings and the tie denominator; if only unlisted parties occupy third place, all listed markets resolve to No.