Will the Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber (BLS series WPU0811; not seasonally adjusted; index 1982=100) be above 190 index points in any eligible initial monthly publication released strictly after this market's actual first issuance and before January 1,

📡 Kalshi: 99%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber (BLS series WPU0811; not seasonally adjusted; index 1982=100) is above 190 index points in any eligible initial monthly publication released strictly after this market's actual first issuance and before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.

The source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The exact statistic is Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber, series WPU0811, not seasonally adjusted, index 1982=100. Values are index points, not dollar lumber prices. FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0811) republishes this BLS series; the BLS publication time and original value control.

For each market, the eligibility window begins strictly after that market's actual first issuance and ends strictly before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM EST. A publication already released at or before issuance does not count, including a release earlier on listing day. A subsequently added market has its own issuance time. The observation month may precede issuance: eligibility is determined by publication time.

Use the initial BLS publication for each monthly observation, including a preliminary publication. This expressly selects initial publications instead of waiting for the first non-preliminary release. Subsequent revisions and corrections do not count. Publications at or after the deadline do not count, even if their observation month is in 2026. A current FRED chart containing revised history must not be used in place of the original release.

Above means strictly greater than the strike, using the BLS-reported precision without additional rounding. A qualifying publication permits early Yes settlement. If none exceeds the strike by the deadline, including when there are no eligible publications, the condition is not met and the market resolves to No, subject to the Contract's normal data-unavailability and market-outco