Will IBM have a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 31, 2026, 3 p.m. UTC

Rules

If IBM has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.