Will OpenAI have a higher Arena Score than Meta at the end of 2026?

Call Yes 12Ᵽ Call No 88Ᵽ

12.00Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

10.00Ᵽ – 14.00Ᵽ

Call No

86.00Ᵽ – 90.00Ᵽ

📡 Kalshi: 12%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

10.00Ᵽ best bid · 14.00Ᵽ best ask

🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $6,530 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 2 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

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Bids

10.00 10.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 90.00Ᵽ · if correct: +100.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −900.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 14.00Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 14.00Ᵽ · if correct: +860.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −140.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Kalshi ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Dec. 31, 2026, 3 p.m. UTC
Rules: If OpenAI's top model has a higher Arena Score than Meta's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each company's top model is its highest-ranked model in the Overall category of the leaderboard, with style control removed (Adjustments: None). A model belongs to the company the leaderboard lists as its organization. Preliminary models count.

If the two top models show the same Arena Score, the one ranked higher on the leaderboard wins.

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