Will Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 8%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

6.00Ᵽ best bid · 10.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause of the employee's pneumonia or death.

A generic description such as "bacterial," "viral" or "undetermined etiology" does NOT count
Naming a pathogen as suspected, under investigation or not ruled out does NOT count
Ruling out a pathogen without naming the cause does NOT count