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🏛️ Politics
General
#42162
🎯 One of 2 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 2 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 2 candidates »
Will France declare a state of emergency before Jan 1, 2027?
27.00Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
25.00Ᵽ – 29.00Ᵽ
Call No
71.00Ᵽ – 75.00Ᵽ
📡 Kalshi: 27%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
25.00Ᵽ best bid · 29.00Ᵽ best ask
🟢 On Kalshi (at import): $6,780 volume
🔍 Possibly the same event elsewhere
Text-matched by question similarity, not confirmed — check before treating this as a real discrepancy.
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
Polymarket: 5%
· 22.00Ᵽ apart
Price history
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Resolution
- Source
- Kalshi ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- If the French government declares a state of emergency (état d'urgence) after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from Bloomberg News, Reuters, the Associated Press, or Le Monde qualifies. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing of content from other sources qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher.
A state of emergency (état d'urgence) is one declared by decree of the President of France in the Council of Ministers under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, for all or part of French territory, including overseas territories. It counts when the decree is adopted, not when it is merely announced, requested or under consideration.
Curfews, protest bans and other measures taken by prefects or mayors, Article 16 or state-of-siege powers, a state of health emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), and natural-disaster declarations do not count.
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