Will Republicans win independents in the exit poll?

📡 Kalshi: 17%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

15.00Ᵽ best bid · 19.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 6, 2026, 4:59 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the Republican Party wins independents in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, a party “wins” independents if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where N is the number of tied strikes.

CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If the figure is unavailable at that time, CNN will remain the primary source for 24 additional hours. After that, CBS and then ABC will be used, in that order, through Nov 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.