Will James Talarico drop out of the 2026 Texas Senate race before Nov 3, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 1%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 3.00Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 3, 2026, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If James Talarico drops out of the 2026 Texas Senate race before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

"Dropped out" means any of the following:
James Talarico announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign
James Talarico files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities
James Talarico publicly states they are no longer seeking the office
James Talarico endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running
James Talarico is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal

The following do NOT constitute dropping out:
Losing a primary or election
Failing to qualify for debates or ballots
Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing
Being eliminated through the normal election process
Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate

Key provisions:
Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter
"Suspending" a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Talarico explicitly states they remain a candidate
For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party's primary
Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot